REGIONAL— The upcoming winter may be colder and wetter than usual, or warmer and wetter. Or possibly colder and drier. That was as much certainty as the National Weather Service in Duluth could muster as they issued their annual winter forecast, put out by the Climate Prediction Center late last week.
With the forecast of a weak la Niña pattern in the Pacific for the early part of winter, the odds slightly favor a colder and wetter start to the season. That would mark a significant departure from the two previous winters, which started out historically mild.
The la Niña pattern is expected to fade by January, as the Pacific moves into a neutral phase. La Niña is the term for a colder-than-usual Pacific current that is known to influence weather across North America. The el Niño pattern is the term for the warmer current that also influences weather in North America and typically brings milder winters to the Upper Midwest.
The winter forecast is issued for the months of December-February and forecasters say there’s a 39 percent chance of below-normal temperatures and a 36 percent chance of above-normal precipitation. By contrast, there’s a 28 percent chance of above-normal temperatures and a 31 percent chance of below-normal precipitation.
At the same time, the forecast suggests that the redeveloping drought in the region can be expected to persist over the winter.