REGIONAL— Snow lovers here in the North Country have reason for optimism, at least according to a recent analysis posted on climate.gov. (see https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso). Regular weather watchers likely already know that the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting the development of a weak la Niña current in the Pacific this late fall and winter.
La Niña currents generally mean more snow in the northern U.S., including here in Minnesota, but there are quite a few instances when northern Minnesota experienced less snow than usual under la Niña conditions.
In other words, the “more-snow signal” from a la Niña in general is more of a 60-40 probability. It’s there, but don’t necessarily run out and buy that new snowmobile you’ve been eyeing. What’s more, even when the average la Niña brings more snow, it’s only about three or four inches more than usual.
But when you look closer, by analyzing the weather impacts from just weak la Niña events, as is predicted for this winter, the situation suddenly looks more promising. Under a weak la Niña, Minnesota’s odds for a snowier than average winter jump to about 70-30, and it’s more likely to produce an extra eight-to-ten inches of snow, as compared to the long-term average. That’s enough to make a real difference for those of us who like to play in the snow.