REGIONAL— The North Country is in the midst of one of the warmest and driest autumns on record, but will that trend continue as we head into winter?
Probably not, at least according to the official 2024-25 winter outlook released last Thursday by the National Weather Service. The outlook, which covers December-February, notes that winter weather in North America is heavily influenced by ocean temperatures, which warm and cool on sometimes unpredictable cycles. Warm currents, known as el Niño, can bring warmer and drier winters to northern Minnesota, while cool currents, known as la Niña, can often bring colder winters with more snow.
Forecasters expect la Niña conditions to develop heading into winter and persisting through the winter, but they’re largely hedging their bets as far as what that could mean in northeastern Minnesota. While the outlook predicts a likelihood for colder temperatures in western Minnesota and much of the northwestern U.S., the outlook calls for equal chances of above or below average temperatures in the Arrowhead.
The outlook does call for a likelihood of above normal precipitation in all but far western Minnesota, yet that probability rating is not strong. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service notes that the seasonal drought outlook is calling for a continuation of drought conditions through the winter. While recent rains helped reduce fire danger in much of the area, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map still lists most of northeastern Minnesota in severe drought.
The annual outlook does not forecast specific weather events but offers a general summary of trends in the upcoming season.
The Farmer’s Almanac, meanwhile, is predicting a cold winter with average snowfall, although almanac has shown a roughly one-in-five probability of accuracy in recent years. The publication had predicted a cold winter with average snowfall last year as well. Minnesota, of course, experienced the warmest winter in the state’s history.