REGIONAL— The unseasonably hot and dry conditions that have settled in over the North Country over the past two weeks is raising fire danger and sending water levels falling rapidly.
While the National Weather Service was forecasting a chance of up to a quarter inch of rain early Thursday as the Timberjay went to press, that’s far too little to bring a rebound of water levels in the region. It could reduce fire danger for a couple days, although the forecast for the coming weekend points to a return of sunshine and temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s, well above seasonal norms. The average high this time of year in the area is in the upper 60s with an average low in the low 40s.
June is also typically one of the North Country’s wettest months, with an average of three-to-five inches typical for the month. A standard rule of thumb for the month is an inch of rain per week as the region relies heavily on the May-September period for about two-thirds of total annual precipitation.
So far, Mother Nature hasn’t delivered. According to Krystal Lynum, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Duluth, the month of May ran between one and three inches below normal across northeastern Minnesota. June appears to be continuing that same pattern, with area extended forecasts suggesting less than an inch of rain through the first half of the month, with temperatures remaining well above average.
Adding to the problem is unseasonably dry air. “We’ve been stuck under this ridge pattern, which is providing our hot air,” said Lynum. At the same time, air flow emanating from Canada is responsible for the low relative humidity the region has been experiencing. Low relative humidity both increases fire danger and speeds the drying of the landscape.
“Usually, by the time green-up happens, fire danger tends to drop,” said Lynum, but that hasn’t happened yet.
Falling water levels
The precipitation shortfall is showing up in rapidly declining water levels in the region. The Little Fork River, which is highly responsive to rainfall, saw its flow decline from 1,100 cubic feet per second as of May 25, to 683 cfs as of June 1. Every stream in the region reported declining flows over the past week, although few experienced as sharp a drop as the Little Fork.