To hear officials from the Minnesota Republican Party and the Tom Emmer campaign tell it, thousands of mystery ballots may have been cast on Nov. 2, possibly helping to tip the election to DFLer Mark Dayton. And even as the statewide recount nears completion, that issue could well be the one that prevents a quiet and relatively painless conclusion to yet another close statewide race in Minnesota.

In a Nov. 23 interview on Minnesota Public Radio, candidate Emmer acknowledged that the recount is unlikely to substantially alter the vote totals from election night, and that his campaign is considering other avenues in their efforts to overturn the election result.

Minnesotans got a preview of that strategy two weeks ago, when the Emmer campaign petitioned the state’s Supreme Court to require counties to reconcile their vote totals with the number of voters signed in on Election Day.

Republican Party Chair Tony Sutton claimed that local election officials may have failed to reconcile the number of ballots with the number of voters, and that oversight may have allowed thousands of so-called “phantom” votes to be counted on Nov. 2. In his MPR interview, Emmer claimed that as many as 20,000-30,000 more ballots showed up in ballot boxes in the 2008 election than should have, based on the number of voters who went to the polls. He said his campaign is trying to determine if the same thing happened this time around. It was, perhaps, the most direct allegation of widespread and organized voter fraud issued by a losing statewide candidate in Minnesota in decades.

Emmer’s claim was an eye-popper for many Minnesotans, particularly election officials who often take pride in the meticulous methods they use to prevent voter fraud. But is there any evidence for Emmer’s claim?

Not according to election officials, at either the state, county, or local levels. “Reconciling the number of voters with the number of ballots is conducted on Election Night in every polling place by equal numbers of Republican and Democrat election judges,” noted John Aiken, chief spokesperson for the Secretary of State’s office. “This process is completed before election judges are allowed to go home,” he said. 

That position is familiar to local election officials. Ely City Clerk Terry Boase, who oversees elections in the city, said election judges must reconcile the number of voters with ballots. “You have three numbers that need to balance,” said Boase. “The number of ballots that went through the machine, the number of voter receipts, and the number of signatures on the voter list.” In Ely, the numbers of all three balanced, said Boase. If, however, an extra ballot had been found in the box, the judges would have had to randomly remove one to make the numbers match.

While one ballot here or there wouldn’t tip the election, candidate Emmer stated last week that if his campaign could convince election officials to remove thousands of ballots statewide, it could allow him to close the gap. While randomly removing ballots isn’t likely to make much difference in a race that was so close, Emmer has focused his attention, and his allegations, on the state’s three largest counties, Hennepin, Ramsey, and St. Louis, all three of which favored Dayton by significant margins.

According to David Schultz, a Hamline University professor who frequently blogs on state politics, the Emmer campaign’s strategy seems clear. “If Emmer can concentrate on removing ballots from these counties then he runs a statistically better chance of winning than if ballots are generally removed by reconciliation across the state,” wrote Schultz on his blog this week. “Thus, Emmer’s route to victory? Remove ballots in counties that went for Dayton and hope it alters the outcome,” Schultz added.

Emmer’s strategy faces long odds, as Schultz acknowledges.

Emmer’s strategy is particularly uphill given that St. Louis County, where Dayton tallied his biggest margin of victory, has few, if any precincts where the numbers of ballots and voters didn’t match exactly. “We haven’t seen anything in St. Louis County where there’s any big differential,” said County Auditor Don Dicklich. “We had a few cases where there was a discrepancy of one or two, but those are usually because the [vote-counting] machine couldn’t read a ballot.”

As for Emmer’s suggestion of widespread ballot box stuffing? “Absolutely not,” said Dicklich.

While Emmer’s road to victory looks long, some observers say winning may not be his real objective. “All this is an effort to provide political cover for a suit to delay seating Dayton,” said Schultz. Doing so could keep Gov. Tim Pawlenty in office, possibly for months, giving Republicans full control of the legislative and executive branches of government for the first time in decades, notes Schultz. That could allow Republicans to deal with the state’s massive budget deficit without having to work with DFLers.

But such a political tactic could easily backfire for Republicans, which is why they’re attempting to make their case early, Schultz believes. “On or around Dec. 14, when the Canvassing Board declares Dayton the winner, Emmer and the GOP will have a hard time convincing Minnesotans that they have meritorious legal claims (that could reverse the election) justifying going forward,” said Schultz. “They need political cover. That is what this [Supreme Court] suit and their rhetoric are about now.”

GOP claims part

of a pattern

Emmer’s claims of voter fraud aren’t anything new for the state’s GOP. A Republican-leaning group, known as Minnesota Majority, has repeatedly alleged widespread voter fraud, mostly carried out by felons who voted without having had their rights to do so restored. Earlier this year, the group produced a list of more than 1,000 names of individuals they claimed had voted illegally in the 2008 election.

The list prompted investigation by county attorneys across the state, who have since dismissed all but a handful as without merit. At a press conference last week, John Kingrey, the executive director of the Minnesota County Attorney’s Assocation, criticized Minnesota Majority for forcing county attorneys to devote substantial staff time to claims that were “wildly overstated.” “In most cases, a county attorney has discretion on when to investigate and prosecute a crime, but under Minnesota law, when we receive a report of voter fraud, they must investigate and prosecute. Failure to do so means you forfeit your office, said Kingrey

According to Kingrey, most of the handful of individuals prosecuted as a result of those investigations had simply been confused about their right to vote. “By and large these people are cooperating. They thought since they were out of jail, they could vote,” he said. “Usually, they are still on probation, however, which means they still don’t have that right.” Kingrey said he expects most of the few dozen cases will likely be thrown out, and he questioned whether pursuing such cases is a good use of scarce taxpayer funds. “My point is, with reductions to local units of government and tight funding, where do you want us spending money? On real public safety concerns or chasing a few felons who thought they could vote?”

Kingrey said county attorneys from around the state will be forming a blue ribbon panel in the coming months to recommend changes to the Legislature that could help address such problems.