What keeps young workers rooted here?

REGIONAL- What helps young people find steady work after high school, and what makes them more likely to build their working lives close to home?
A new study from the Center for Rural Policy and Development offers some answers for northeast Minnesota, with encouraging findings for Iron Range schools and a reminder that preparing tomorrow’s workforce starts well before graduation.
The study followed nearly 50,000 graduates from 2008 through 2023 across the seven Arrowhead counties, connecting school, college, and Minnesota employment records to see how their lives unfolded.
The findings suggest that career and technical courses in high school and access to regional colleges have lasting connections with employment. They also challenge communities to think about workers who are already here but have yet to find their footing.
Further education
Among graduates in the report’s five-year employment comparison, about 62 percent of those who earned a college degree, certificate, or other postsecondary qualification had sustained employment somewhere in Minnesota. That compared with about 41 percent of those without one.
The researchers defined sustained employment as working at least 1,000 hours in a year for one employer, roughly 19 hours a week averaged over the year. That measures consistency with an employer but does not necessarily mean full-time work or a good paycheck.
Where graduates continued their education mattered, too.
About half of those who completed a program in northeast Minnesota had sustained employment within the region five years after high school. Among those who completed their education outside Minnesota, about one in five had returned to sustained work in the region.
Nearly six in ten graduates who earned a postsecondary qualification completed it within northeast Minnesota.
The report found that where students finished their education mattered more for regional employment than whether they earned a two-year or four-year degree. Keeping local colleges accessible could therefore help communities keep more of their young workers.
The Iron Range
advantage
Iron Range graduates had an advantage in completing further education.
After accounting for other measured differences among students and their communities, researchers estimated a 55 percent likelihood of earning a postsecondary qualification for Iron Range graduates, compared with 46 percent for graduates elsewhere in northeast Minnesota.
Ely is among the school districts included in the report’s Iron Range grouping.
Career and technical education, commonly called CTE, also stood out. Among graduates who did not earn a postsecondary qualification, those who completed a sequence of career courses had an estimated 32 percent likelihood of sustained regional employment five years after high school. That compared with 25 percent for otherwise similar graduates without those courses.
The connection strengthened over time, continuing through the tenth year after graduation.
CTE participation was also associated with a slightly higher likelihood of completing further education. Career preparation and college preparation, the findings suggest, can work together.
Workers already here
Another finding brings the workforce discussion closer to home.
Five years after graduation, about 29 percent of high school graduates without a postsecondary qualification were working in Minnesota but fell below the study’s sustained employment threshold. Nearly three-quarters of those workers had jobs within northeast Minnesota.
That raises a different question for employers and communities accustomed to discussing worker shortages: What would help people already working here move into more consistent employment?
The study cannot say why those workers fell below its threshold. Someone dividing substantial hours between employers could miss the mark, while personal circumstances or seasonal employment could also affect the totals.
Some college attendance, even without completing a program, was associated with lower risks of long-term employment instability.
The researchers caution that these relationships do not prove cause and effect. Family circumstances, health, personal decisions, and other influences were outside the study’s reach.
Likewise, graduates without a Minnesota employment record were not necessarily unemployed. They could be working out of state, serving in the military, self-employed, or raising children.
Still, the findings give schools, families, and employers something concrete to consider: The classes students take and the educational opportunities available close to home are connected with where, and how consistently, they work years later.