REGIONAL– Minnesota narrowly hung on to all eight of its congressional districts in the wake of the 2020 U.S. Census. It probably shouldn’t have, based on the findings of what’s known as the Census Bureau’s “Post-Enumeration Survey (PES),” the results of which were released late last week.
The PES is a review process conducted in the wake of every census that uses a variety of statistical methods to test the accuracy of the once-a-decade count of the nation’s population.
While no census is perfect, the PES found that the counts in 36 states and the District of Columbia were accurate from a statistical standpoint. Yet, fourteen other states, including Minnesota, were found to have either undercounted or overcounted its residents by a statistically significant percentage.
“Achieving an accurate count for all 50 states and DC is always a difficult endeavor,” said Census Bureau Director Robert L. Santos, “and these results suggest it was difficult again in 2020, particularly given the unprecedented challenges we faced,” Santos added. Those challenges included the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and unprecedented interference in the counting effort by the Trump administration.
“It is important to remember that the quality of the 2020 Census total population count is robust and consistent with that of recent censuses,” noted Santos. “However, we know there is still more work to do in planning future censuses to ensure equitable coverage across the United States and we are working to overcome any and all obstacles to achieve that goal.”
In Minnesota, it appears the census overcounted the state’s residents by about 225,000, an amount that almost certainly allowed the state to hang on to all eight of its congressional districts.
In fact, as was widely reported last year, the state hung on to the Eighth Congressional District by the narrowest margin in more than 80 years, topping the state of New York for the seat by just 26 residents. The state of New York experienced its own overcount, according to the PES. There, it appears, the census counted 3.44 percent more residents than actually lived in the state. But Minnesota’s overcount, at 3.84 percent, overshot its own population by an even bigger margin.
Since congressional districts are supposed to average just over 761,000 residents, Minnesota’s overcount apparently added roughly 29,000 residents per congressional district. New York’s overcount added roughly 26,000 people per district, a difference of about 3,000 residents. If the count in both states had been equally accurate, the Empire State would have ended up with another seat in Congress, while Minnesota’s Eighth District would have disappeared.
For Minnesota, the good news is that the results of the PES won’t affect the census figures that were officially certified last year. Minnesota will keep all eight of its congressional districts at least until the redistricting is completed in the wake of the 2030 census.
Minnesota’s overcount is reflective of the greater effort that many liberal-leaning states made to ensure that all of its residents were counted. States with overcounts included Hawaii (+6.79 percent), Delaware (+5.45), Rhode Island (+5.05), Minnesota (+3.84), New York (+3.44), Utah (+2.59), Massachusetts (+2.24), and Ohio (+1.49).
By contrast, some states, mostly in the South, experienced undercounts. The largest was in Arkansas, where the PES determined just over five percent of residents were not counted. Tennessee and Mississippi both experienced undercounts of more than four percent, while Florida saw an estimated undercount of 3.48 percent and Texas fell short by an estimated 1.92 percent.
Generally, states that made a public push to ensure a full count did better, while states that resisted census promotion tended to fall short. The PES doesn’t specify how or why some states might have experienced over- or under-counts. But, generally, undercounts occur when census workers are unable to track down residents, often poor people who are homeless or have transient residences.
Overcounts generally occur when the census records people twice, which can happen when people move during the census period or have multiple residences and get counted in more than one location.
Not surprisingly, other indicators suggest that the nation’s white population was overcounted, while minority populations were generally undercounted.
“These results give us valuable insight as we plan operations and allocate resources for the 2030 Census,” said Santos.