Our smoky future

Here we go again?
That’s the very real concern as the area experienced several days with unhealthy levels of wildfire smoke this past week. Already this year, the North Country has experienced several days with high levels of fine particulates in the air, due either from local wildfires or from fires north of the border.
Canadian meteorologists are forecasting a hotter and drier summer than usual across western Canada, which they expect to lead to another bad wildfire season. With the prevailing westerly to northwesterly air flow here in the North Country, that means we can expect to see many more smoky days this year, conditions reminiscent of 2023, during which Canada experienced its worst fire season in history. Here in northern Minnesota, we experienced air quality alerts from that Canadian smoke nearly one out of every five days during the 2023 fire season. This year is starting out nearly as bad, with large fires raging in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, which have repeatedly sent smoke into our region.
We wish we could say it will get better, but the reality is that it won’t. In fact, all the science points to a future increasingly dominated by fire and its impacts on global ecosystems and human health. We are facing a future increasingly dominated by oppressive levels of heat and wildfire smoke.
And while our political leaders in Washington, D.C. would like to ban the very term and any discussion of its implications, the unpleasant reality we find ourselves experiencing today and the even more dire future ahead is directly connected to climate change. Denying this reality will not change the facts or clear our skies of the smoke generated by the ever-increasing number of fires.
Researchers at NASA have documented the increase in wildfires as well as the sharp increase in extreme fire behavior over the past two decades. Most of that increase has been seen in the western U.S., and the boreal forests of Canada and Russia. We’ve experienced the same trend here in northeastern Minnesota, as warmer temperatures are extending the danger of fire throughout the summer. In June, for example, our average temperature in the Rainy River headwaters region has increased by just over 2.5 degrees F since 2000. Wildfires in June were once unthinkable here in the North Country as well as in Canada, but those days are now gone. Welcome to climate change. It’s here and we’re going to be living with it for the rest of our lives.
It can seem overwhelming, even hopeless, particularly as climate change denial seems to be the policy direction currently being pursued in Washington. Yet there are some hopeful signs. Yes, our current president denies the link between the burning of fossil fuels and the warming of the planet and even promotes the burning of more dirty coal, a key contributor to climate change. But that’s just rhetoric. It doesn’t change the fact that no one is going to install new coal plants in the U.S., because the economics of energy production have changed dramatically over the past two decades. A new solar installation can now produce electricity for about $24 per megawatt, whereas it costs about $36 to produce the same amount of power at the most efficient coal plant. Costs at older coal plants can run far higher. Building new coal plants or continuing to operate old ones is bad for electric ratepayers and for utility shareholders alike. Utilities make decisions based on the bottom line, not retrograde political ideology.
The reality is that solar and wind are no longer “alternative energy.” They represent about 90 percent of all new power production installed worldwide, including here in the U.S., and nearly three-quarters of that is coming from solar. Solar installations are now increasingly paired with large-capacity battery systems that keep the lights on and the appliances running throughout the nighttime hours as well.
The renewable energy revolution isn’t some futuristic environmentalist pipe dream— it’s already here. And contrary to the claims of some out-of-touch politicians, the cost of producing energy is actually declining thanks to renewable energy. While the cost of distributing that power is continuing to rise, that would be the case regardless of how the power is produced. The fact is, replacing coal plants with cleaner, cheaper renewable sources of energy is helping to keep our power bills from rising as quickly as they otherwise would.
It’s the altered economics of alternative energy that provide the most hope for addressing climate change and all of its repercussions. The switch to solar and wind is now inevitable and that will hopefully help keep the skies of the future a little less smoky.