REGIONAL— The North Country is back in drought after several weeks with well-below-average precipitation. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, virtually all of the Arrowhead is now in moderate drought, while parts of southern St. Louis County, all of Carlton County, and northern Pine County are classified in severe drought.
The region was in moderate-to-severe drought through much of last fall and through the winter, but a return to more seasonable precipitation beginning this past May had eased drought conditions across Minnesota.
But drier conditions returned in September and have continued right through November. The area was first classified as abnormally dry by early October, but those conditions have only worsened since. Most of the state is now either abnormally dry or in official drought condition, with the worst conditions found in the northeastern part of the state.
Local reporting stations like Embarrass and Orr have received just over half their normal precipitation since Sept. 1., while the Duluth airport has received just 40 percent of its typical precipitation during the period.
The dry conditions are showing up in stream flows in the region, although many streams are now ice covered. The Vermilion River was at 98 cfs as of this week, which puts the river’s flow below its Q90, which means flows are above the current level at least 90 percent of the time during the same period of the year. The Basswood River in Winton is now at 330 cfs, also below its Q90.
The current extended forecast suggests no major precipitation events in the foreseeable future, although based on forecasted temperatures over the next two weeks, any precipitation that does fall in the area will likely fall as snow. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center point to colder-than-average temperatures in Minnesota, a marked change from the mild conditions experienced across the state so far this fall.