I think women in Saudi Arabia are the primary reason for optimism there. They are well educated. More now attend universities than men.”

Rolf Hansen

TOWER— Recently-retired Norwegian ambassador Rolf Hansen provided a historical look at the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East during a presentation at the Tower Civic Center on Oct. 14. Former U.S. diplomat Tom Hanson, who currently serves as diplomat-in-residence at the Alworth Center at the University of Minnesota-Duluth, joined Hansen in their wide-ranging discussion. The two were hosted by longtime friends Orlyn and Marit Kringstad, of Tower.
The topic was a timely one, with the latest upheaval in Syria and ongoing efforts to end the now nearly two-decades-long war in Afghanistan, and about 50 Tower and Ely area residents turned out to hear the discussion.
Hansen served as the Norwegian ambassador to Syria from 2008 until 2013, when Norway removed its embassy staff due to security concerns stemming from the ongoing civil war. He later became ambassador to Saudi Arabia, where he served from 2014-2017.
Hansen said Norway has focused its diplomatic efforts on bringing warring factions together in hopes of reaching accommodations for the various interests— a task that has proven difficult in recent years.
From the U.S. perspective, Tom Hanson said the U.S. has increasingly sought, since the end of the Iraq War, to disengage from the Middle East. He said the U.S. experience in Iraq raised questions about the ability of the U.S. to positively influence events in the region, noting that a recent U.S. Army-commissioned history of the Iraq War found that Iran was the primary victor of the American incursion there.
With the Middle East seemingly intractable, Hansen said U.S. officials have increasingly turned their attention to Asia, in hopes of addressing the rise of China. “Obama’s pivot was to Asia,” said Hanson, who has talked in Tower before about the challenges that China poses as both a political and economic model. “Current thinking is that China is the real issue and China’s tech expertise is seen as a major threat. They are moving ahead of us in quantum [computing], and AI, and it’s a challenge to our system, our economy and governance. They are currently outperforming us.”
The Trump administration’s focus is less clear, but Hansen said he had appeared, at least initially, to signal a refocus on the Middle East, while addressing the challenges posed by China as primarily a matter of trade imbalance. “Trump’s first foreign trip was to Saudi Arabia and he remains close to Israel,” he said.
Trump had also focused attention early in his administration on the defeat of ISIS, although many foreign policy observers, including Trump’s first defense secretary, Gen. James Mattis, believe his latest decision to disengage from the Syrian conflict will lead to a resurgence in the radical Islamic organization. Hansen said western powers, particularly Britain and France, may have helped create the chaos in Syria by encouraging opposition forces to act against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, without providing them an effective means to do so. He said the Obama administration had been more circumspect, and perhaps more constructive, in its approach to Syria.
History lesson
Ambassador Hansen offered a history lesson on efforts to solve the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He noted that the Oslo Accords had created a framework for a two-state solution but that the push behind that initiative was blunted when a radical right-wing Israeli citizen assassinated then-Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin. “That was the turning point, which came in late 1995,” said Hansen. Since then, conservative forces have largely dominated Israeli politics and have been increasingly unwilling to negotiate with Palestinians towards a long-term settlement. He said current leaders are “really about kicking the can down the road and trying to avoid difficult issues while just staying in power.”
Hansen said he still believes a two-state solution is the only viable option for settling the decades-long dispute at the heart of Middle Eastern conflict.
Hansen also touched on the other major source of conflict in the region— the religious competition between Iran, which is seen as the leader of the of the region’s Shia muslims, and Sunni-led Saudi Arabia. Hansen said Saudi Arabia had been more open and culturally liberal in the 1950s and 60s, but grew increasingly conservative culturally in response to the Iranian revolution, which brought religious conservatives to power in that country.
Hansen noted that the new Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman hopes to modernize and diversify the Saudi economy, and restore a semblance of cultural freedom, while still retaining a tight grip on political opposition. “A terrible example was the assassination of journalist Jamal Kashoggi,” said Hansen. “That was testimony to the limits of freedom in that country. It’s still a very repressive state.”
Hansen said he’s not optimistic about the prospects for the Middle East over the next few decades. “There’s little prospect for democracy or democratic values,” he said. “I think women in Saudi Arabia are the primary reason for optimism there. They are well educated. More now attend universities than men.”
Hansen, in response to a question, said he believes that Trump’s decision to abandon the Iran nuclear deal will prove to be a mistake. “It was not a perfect agreement, but at least it put the brakes on developing an Iranian nuclear program. And Iran did largely comply.” He said the multi-nation agreement helped to move Iran into a more normalized relationship with other countries, which brought benefits to all involved.