It’s been 20 years since the North American Free Trade Agreement ushered in a transformation of the American economy, and its effects can be seen all across the country, including right here in northeastern Minnesota.

That thought came immediately to mind last week in Ely, as I listened to Jay Mackie reminisce about Ely’s heyday in the late 1940s through the early 1970s. He described the loss of so much that those of his generation remember, growing up when the Pioneer Mine was still going strong, and when the timber industry was booming as America built homes for all the returning World War II GIs and their families. It was a time when Americans enjoyed a level of prosperity never before seen, and that spurred the rise of the Ely tourist sector at the same time.

In those days, Ely had three strong legs to its economic stool and the community thrived. Its Main Street shops did a brisk business, its schools were full of kids, and its other public institutions had plentiful resources. It really was a golden era in the history of Ely, as it was with many communities in our region.

Mackie contrasted that past with a present that is far less robust than in those heady days. And Mackie is right. Ely’s economy has suffered, but perhaps not for all the same reasons that many would point to. It’s human nature to look for answers, usually easy answers, to the challenges that we all face. In Ely, there is definitely a train of thought that the community’s current woes are mostly the fault of environmentalists. From the 1949 flight ban to the closure of the wilderness resorts, to the end of logging in the Boundary Waters, there’s a deep-seated feeling held by some that environmental rules have devastated the community’s economic outlook. And there is no question that the regulatory changes, particularly the 1978 Wilderness Act, changed the course of Ely’s history and economy.

It’s apparent that for many of those in the community who subscribe to this view, copper-nickel mining has become a sort of savior, that will somehow restore the glory days, fill the local schools with kids, and return prosperity to Sheridan and Chapman streets.

And if only it were true.

But in the 20 years since the signing of NAFTA, our world has been transformed economically, and the truth is, the glory days aren’t coming back— not to Ely, nor to many other small communities in rural parts of the United States.

Today, whether loggers had access to timber in the Boundary Waters would make little difference to Ely’s economy. Cheap imports of Canadian lumber, combined with lower demand for paper, have forced the closure of wood products mills all throughout Minnesota and other parts of the country. Even in places much closer to active wood plants than Ely, loggers are struggling to hang on.

Whether PolyMet opens or not will make little difference to Ely. By road it’s a long way, and the company’s latest estimate puts total mine and plant employment at 295. Keep in mind, 1,300 miners worked at LTV when it closed for good in 2001, and no one would have argued the region’s economy was booming at that time.

Some of the other proposed copper-nickel projects could add to the jobs picture, but those are years away at best, and, like all mining projects, entail enormous upfront financial risk and the inevitable disadvantages of boom and bust.

While any new mining jobs will certainly pay more than most service jobs, our mines today compete in a globalized commodities market and face relentless pressure to cut costs, and that includes wages and benefits. The trade regime first established under NAFTA, which later led to the World Trade Organization and myriad bilateral trade agreements, has forced the “race-to-the-bottom” that many feared at the time. Workers in the U. S. have far less bargaining power today than they did 30 years ago, even in unionized industries. And don’t expect to see unions in any of the new mines being proposed. The giant international conglomerates that will actually operate any new mines in our region know how to keep unions at bay.

While mining jobs pay relatively well, they come with a high cost to workers, which is why most residents of our region have little interest in being a miner. And mines are certainly no guarantee of prosperity. While many at last week’s forum rightfully bemoaned the fact that Ely’s median household income (of $48,199, according to the latest U.S. census data), is well below the statewide median of $59,126, Ely actually does significantly better than most small cities in northern Minnesota, including mining communities. To be clear, that income figure for Ely represents the entire 55731 zip code, so it includes Morse, Fall Lake, and Eagles Nest townships. For just the city of Ely, the median household income is $40,560, according to the latest census data.

But compare that to Virginia, which is surrounded by operating mines, where the median household income is just $36,397. In Eveleth, it’s $34,286. Chisholm checks in at $35,500, while Hibbing does slightly better at $37,500. Just 20 miles down the road, the median household income in Tower is just $32,250. Even prosperous Grand Rapids barely edges Ely, at $41,157.

Take a look at cities across northern Minnesota and Ely remains near the top of the heap in terms of income, whether you consider the city proper, or the entire zip code. There are an awful lot of small cities in northern Minnesota that would love to be in Ely’s shoes right now.

I don’t say that to suggest things are great. Even the tourism sector has been negatively affected by the hollowing out of the middle class, so apparent in the wake of NAFTA. The growing inequality in the U.S. is bad for small communities, because their past success was dependent on a healthy middle class.

Jay Mackie’s eloquent story, unfortunately, could be restated in just about any small town in the Upper Midwest today. Change the name of the town, change the industries involved, yet the bottom line remains the same. Fewer job prospects, shuttered Main Street shops, declining local tax bases, and fewer kids for the local schools. That’s not a coincidence. It’s the inevitable result of government policies and economic trends that work to the disadvantage of small communities.

That’s not to suggest we throw up our hands. Communities that are thoughtful and strategic can engineer some degree of economic recovery. In the nearly half century since the last mine closed in Ely, the community has made strides towards a transition to something other than a mining town. Like every transition, it hasn’t always gone smoothly, and it’s been hampered at times by sharply-divergent views about the best path forward.

Despite this, Ely has made progress towards a future as a community that offers a high quality of life, with a vibrant art and cultural scene, quality health services, an attractive community college, and a spectacular lake country at its feet. When you compare the community’s data with other small cities in northern Minnesota, there’s solid evidence that this approach has provided some successes.

Whether new mining projects will enhance that progress, or simply trade one relatively stable economic strategy for a riskier one, remains to be seen. We do know this— there are no easy solutions to the economic problems currently plaguing most small towns. And a community divided is less likely to build a better future than one that works together.