If you build it, will they come?

That’s the key question for ISD 2142, which plans to construct a new school for students in the Cook and Orr attendance areas and convert Tower-Soudan to an elementary school despite strong opposition in those communities to the district’s strategy.

The risk is substantial. For each student who opts to open enroll in another district or to be home schooled, 2142 loses about $10,000 in state and federal aid. Should enough students choose those options, the savings that the district hopes to gain with its plan will be offset by the loss of revenue.

Area legislators expressed similar concerns in a letter to the board and urged officials to secure support from the Orr, Cook and Tower-Soudan attendance areas before moving ahead. “We view it as a huge mistake and a poor investment of public funds to continue with the northern plans without some assurance that the student enrollment will support the new and renovated facilities,” wrote state Rep. David Dill, DFL-Crane Lake, and state Sen. Tom Bakk, DFL-Cook, in a letter to Board Chair Bob Larson.

Bakk and Dill suggested that the district attempt to secure a contractual agreement with the Nett Lake School District and the Bois Forte Band that commits those communities to continue sending their students to ISD 2142 at least for the 20-year duration of the bond repayment. But obtaining a guarantee is virtually impossible. Even the current relationship between the district and Nett Lake specifies tuition costs but does not bind the school to sending students to Orr. Obligating a district to send students to a specific school isn’t enforceable because parents and students ultimately make that choice through the open enrollment option.

A better solution would be to meet with representatives in those communities to develop alternatives to the current plan. Board member Zelda Bruns, who noted the overwhelming opposition to the plan in the north, suggested such a proposal following the Dec. 8 vote, but received little support from the board.

That, in turn, has prompted communities to seek alternatives on their own. If the board continues to rebuff those efforts, it may well find discontented residents choosing to open enroll or home school students.

While that option may not be exercised by a majority in those attendance areas, it could still have a significant impact on the district’s enrollment projections at its new and downsized schools. As an example, the district has forecast an enrollment of 150 at the remodeled elementary school in Tower where the enrollment as of December is about 112 elementary students. With a proposed charter school on the table in Tower, that figure seems wildly optimistic and will likely be much smaller than anticipated. Johnson acknowledged that the district will be adjusting enrollment projections for the 2011-12 school year.

Moreover, the district can expect stiff competition for students from neighboring districts. The Virginia School Board recently authorized its superintendent to explore the possibility of running school buses to Tower and Cook and to the Bois Forte community center near Lake Vermilion next fall. Meanwhile, Ely recently mailed a brochure touting its educational and co- and extracurricular offerings to ISD 2142 residents.

In addition, the district inflicted some damage to itself with its campaign promoting the bond referendum, which said its existing schools were too small to offer a satisfactory range of educational programs. That argument ran counter to the district’s previous contention that small schools offered more by keeping teacher-to-student ratios low and providing more opportunities for students to participate in extracurricular activities.

To be fair, even the combined schools will be small by comparison with surrounding districts. But if small schools were truly the problem, the district’s solution has been inconsistent, retaining Babbitt and Cherry as individual schools despite their tiny enrollments.

Pressing forward with an unpopular plan for the northern half of the district is risky. Although board members may be willing to roll the dice and take their chances, residents of the Cook, Orr and Tower-Soudan attendance areas are not so willing to gamble with their children’s education or their communities’ futures. If the district hopes to succeed with its restructuring, it should remain open to other options that could improve the odds for success.