With tepid recovery and looming state shortfalls, fight deficits another day
A majority of members of Congress signaled last week that they’re willing to put their own political futures ahead of the country’s, when a worrisome coalition of Republicans and conservative Democrats voted to reject a modest second round of federal stimulus funding— a move that seriously threatens our nation’s fragile economic recovery.
While their actions may please many Americans, who polls show are doubtful of the economic benefits of stimulus funding, members of Congress should know better. Economists left, right, and center virtually all acknowledge that the federal stimulus bill, passed fifteen months ago, has played a significant role in mitigating the effects of a catastrophic financial crisis that could have, and may still, send the U.S. economy into years of economic contraction or stagnation.
If Americans seem unconvinced of that, just wait until the impact of the federal stimulus begins to fade. For the past year and a half, states, including Minnesota, have used those stimulus dollars to help plug massive budget deficits. Those state shortfalls aren’t going away, but barring a new round of stimulus funding, the federal dollars will, and that will force unprecedented cuts in education, health care, transportation, public safety, and income supports. Minnesota faces a shortfall equivalent to 20-25 percent of its biennial budget, and there are plenty of other states even worse off.
The combined impact of hundreds of billions of dollars in state budget slashing will significantly weaken a recovery that has, to date, yielded disappointing levels of job creation. Indeed, as hundreds of thousands of teachers, police officers, social workers, road crews, and other state and local employees are laid off over the next year, the U.S. economy could easily slip back into a period of sluggish, if not negative, growth and rising unemployment.
Critics of stimulus funding point to the federal deficit, which ballooned to $1.3 trillion in the final year of the Bush administration and has yet to come back to earth. While Americans have good cause to worry about deficits in the long term, snuffing out economic recovery in its infancy is the worst possible means of achieving a return to fiscal health. Those who focus on deficit reduction now will weaken the recovery and do nothing to improve the nation’s long term finances.
In the past, the U.S. has weathered far greater deficits (when based on a percentage of gross domestic product) than it is experiencing today. Currently, the deficit equals about ten percent of GDP, which is well below the 28 percent peak experienced in 1943, during the height of WWII. All the federal spending that went along with the war effort put millions of Americans back to work, rebuilt household wealth, and was credited with finally ending the Great Depression and creating the conditions for long term economic growth.
Fortunately, we don’t have a world war to fight, but we do have an energy economy that needs investment, the likes of which we haven’t seen in generations. Even those who doubt climate change can’t ignore the fact that our oil-based energy economy is living on borrowed time. There’s a reason that BP was drilling miles into the Earth, and working in 5,000 feet of water, when its Deepwater Horizon drill rig exploded. The easy and inexpensive oil is all but gone, and from here on out, extracting oil is only going to get more difficult, more environmentally risky, and more costly— and eventually, it will no longer be an economically viable energy source.
Yet our entire economic system, from food production, to transportation, to manufacturing, is built on cheap oil. As oil shortages intensify, the impacts will be far-reaching and profound.
By steering investment towards renewable alternatives and conservation, and by re-orienting our society towards systems that require significantly less fossil fuel, we will do far more to employ our citizens and ensure our economic future, than if we stick our heads in the sand and allow other countries to lead the way.
Unfortunately, too many members of Congress appear willing to do just that, by sacrificing our future on the pretense of fiscal rectitude. It’s easy to understand that we shouldn’t spend more than we take in, but when the roof is leaking and storm clouds are on the horizon, sometimes you just have to do what it takes and pay for it when the sunshine returns. That’s the situation we’re in today.
The question now is whether members of Congress are going to put politics first, and risk years of economic stagnation or worse, or whether they will acknowledge the lessons of history and, finally, start really investing in a better future.
Not shocking that Marshall doesn't mention how much a "modest" a second round of stimulus would cost, how it will be paid or expand on exactly who those economists are that have claimed how the first round has at least temporarily saved us from economic destruction.
What threatens our economy is not naysayers worried about an exploding deficit created by Barry in the past 18 months--not Bush over 18 months ago--who are unwilling to accept yet another round of unproven "stimulus" (also known as debt to many of us naysayers). It is an administration that through its own actions has made the engines of ecomic growth fearful of expanding. The current occupant has proven untrustworthy of telling the truth on numerous issues including what costs will be, or who will bear those costs. Private business and employers are cutting their own costs (in other words letting people go) and stockpiling what cash they can (because borrowing is so tight) until all the new laws and regulations become clear. How much will dealing with these new tax laws cost our company? How much will new health care laws cost us? Will paying the $2k penalty per employer be better than paying for higher insurance costs? How much will any new environmental regulations/fees cost stemming from a probably push for cap and trade? These are actual, real world questions that employers will demand to have answered before they grow again. And given that clarity is not in the cards with the current Democrats running the circus, don't hold your breath on real ecomic growth anytime soon. Government money has never, or never will be a sustainable source of economic growth. Just like unemployment extensions--what are we on now the 3rd one? 4th one?--it will never be enough.
The most telling statement about how Marshall views the role of the government in our lives is shown perfectly in his continued willingness to hand over power to the government and accept that they know better than anyone else. To quote, "While their actions may please many Americans, who polls show are doubtful of the economic benefits of stimulus funding, members of Congress should know better." Of course Congress should know better Marshall. They represent the best and brightest minds in America. All have saintly intentions and none of them have any alterior motives for positions they take right?
Jeezuz, what a sheep.