The tide may finally be turning for the U.S. economy.

For the first time since entering the nation’s worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, we are seeing real signs of recovery.

The nation’s gross domestic product jumped 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, the fastest growth since 2003. Private wage income is on the rebound, even in the hard hit manufacturing sector. Auto sales, which many feared would hit the skids in the wake of the Cash for Clunkers program, are looking better than they have in more than two years. Ford had an excellent February, with sales up 43 percent over the same month one year ago, while GM saw its sales rise by 12 percent.

Here in Minnesota, state officials reported that the state’s economy produced over 15,000 new jobs in January, helping to push Minnesota’s jobless figure down to 7.3 percent. At the same time, a rebound in wages in Minnesota has helped improve the state’s short-term budget crisis modestly, another sign of economic improvement.

In announcing the slight improvement in the state’s budget, Minnesota’s state economist Tom Stinson credited the federal stimulus package for laying the foundation for recovery. While that view runs counter to the position of some politicians, Stinson’s view is perfectly in step with the vast majority of independent economists.

Critics of the federal stimulus like to say that the Obama administration oversold the benefits of the stimulus, having predicted that the $787 billion measure would keep the nationwide unemployment rate at 8 percent or below. Such predictions were clearly wide of the mark, but is that the result of an ineffective stimulus or that the Obama administration simply underestimated the dire state of the economy they inherited from President Bush?

We can debate that one forever.

The bottom line is that the stimulus saved hundreds of thousands of jobs, and created more than a million new ones. Don’t take our word for it. According to IHS Global Insight, the research firm used by the state of Minnesota and many other states and major corporations for economic modeling, the federal stimulus bill has added between 1.6 and 1.8 million jobs to the U.S. economy already, and the final tally will be closer to 2.5 million jobs. That’s actually right in line with what the Obama administration and the Congressional Budget Office had predicted when the package was approved.

Critics, like Gov. Tim Pawlenty, can say those jobs don’t matter, but had the critics had their way, the nation’s unemployment rate would be far worse today— and tens of millions more Americans would be facing extraordinary financial hardship.

Keep in mind, much of that federal stimulus package was intended to ease the pain for unemployed workers. The extension of federal unemployment benefits provided direct assistance to 5 million unemployed Americans and their families. In many cases, those benefits allowed families to stay in their homes and pay their bills while looking for work in a very difficult economy. Had those families been abandoned, and left on their own, the impact to the economy would have been far more devastating.

And the best part is, the effect of the stimulus is still with us. Many of the projects funded with stimulus dollars will be under construction this year, which should add more muscle to the recovery in 2010.

We certainly understand, and share, the concern about the burgeoning federal budget deficit. But few economists are fretting about the short-term effect of the stimulus package. Had the federal government opted for the Hoover-like approach advocated last year by Sen. John McCain and others, the economy would be far weaker today and that would have further reduced federal tax receipts.

Sensible economists understand that the government’s first job is to get the economy working again. Once that happens, we can begin to get serious about the deficit.

That could still be quite a while. While the economy is showing promise, we’re nowhere near being out of the woods yet and now is no time to turn off the tap. But the good news is the economy is headed in the right direction. And, whether some want to admit it or not, the federal stimulus package deserves plenty of credit for the progress we’ve made.